#Household Math - High school, career paths, and financial outlooks...

Question

For a high school student who's thinking about the future, it seems to me (a parent) that there are three basic choices: working straight out of high school and getting into some sort of un- or limited- skill labour; going to university and (presumably) learning some sort of skill that can translate into a job directly (ex. accounting), and going to trade school and learning some sort of trade. What are your thoughts on this?

Answer

Before talking about potential net earnings, I think it's most important to talk about the desires and nature of the student. That said, and with some very basic (and perhaps widely inaccurate) assumptions, the trade school grad does best over time. However, going to work straight out of school and being able to get a good wage gives that person a leg up over the college graduate for close to 20 years.

Analysis

There's quite a bit to unpack here, so let's take it step by step.

My first thoughts don't go to finances but rather to happiness - where is it that any given person will be his/her happiest. This is an individual decision that will be guided heavily by the interests and desires of that person. For instance, I know that at that age, the thought of doing anything other than going to University was a non-starter. Thankfully, I had a scholarship that covered many of the costs! However, as I've grown older and worked with students, it's become clear that for many students, it's a better choice, due to their desires and temperament, that another choice such as a trade school would be far more desirable. It used to be the case that a college education was a guarantee to a good job but that hasn't been the case for many many years. For example, Lululemon, the clothing retailer, only hires college grads as sales people. How are they able to do that? Because there are so many of them that can't get jobs in their chosen fields that Lululemon can be extremely choosy in who they hire.

Let's say for arguments' sake that the choice really is up in the air - the student is planning a future and that all of the three choices (working, university, trade school) are appealing. We can now look at this in terms of finances.

I'm going to make a lot of assumptions on this question, so if you spot an assumption that needs adjusting, please do point it out!!! For ease, I'll assume a 2000 hour work year.

Working straight out of school

This part of the question needs a heavy dose of assumption. I'm going to assume that a limited-skill job can be obtained - something that brings in the following amounts:

$14/hr for the first two years
$16/hr for the next two years
$18/hr for the next two years
$20/hr for all years thereafter

University

This part of the question also needs a heavy dose of assumptions. I'm going to assume that the cost of University is all borne by the student and is all paid for with loans. I'll set the loan interest at 10% per year for 10 years. The cost of university I'll assume to be $20,000 per year for four years, all in (tuition, lodging, food, books, lab fees, etc) (public schools being a bit less and public schools being potentially considerably more). Coming out of school, I'll also assume a skill has been learned that will pay $40,000 entry with a 5% raise per year afterwards.

Trade School

And time for more assumptions... I'll assume a trade school is one year and $20,000 all in, with the same repayment schedule as for the university (10 years, 10% interest). I'll assume the graduate is able to get a job for $20/hr starting and receives a raise of $5/hr after two years (I'm assuming moving from an apprentice to a journeyman) and then 5% thereafter.

I'll use a spreadsheet to figure out the results over time.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_SpdTjdH2DJr8grYs8Mfl90crsECIih8mVvo5YozoII/edit?usp=sharing

And so again - these results are the result of the assumptions made and one or more of them may be wildly off, depending on individual circumstances - please take that into account if using this as a basis for decision making! Or let me know your particular circumstances and I can adjust the sheet appropriately.

If we project the net earnings of these three tracks over the course of 30 years, we find the following:

At year 4, the Trade School graduate overtakes the person who started working straight out of school.
At year 19, the University graduate overtakes the person who started working straight out of school.

In terms of overall earnings over the course of 30 years, we have:

• Working straight out of school = 1,152,000
• University = 1,920,538
• Trade School = 2,782,456

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Questions and comments always welcome!